📉 JTO 4H: Floor Lost, Short Only on a Failed Retest
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📊 Market state: Downtrend. Price 0.3552 (-4.5% 24H) is below EMA200 0.4530, and EMA50 0.3958 keeps sloping down. Lower highs 0.3847 → 0.3800 → 0.3750 → 0.3677, and the 0.360-0.366 floor (tested 3x) just broke.
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🎯 Plan (SHORT)
Retest zone: 0.3600-0.3640 (old floor, EMA20 0.3740 above as moving resistance)
Activation: a 4H rejection candle closing below 0.3590
Invalidation: a 4H close above 0.3640 before activation = setup void
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🛑 Stop loss: 0.3707 (above the 0.3677 swing high + 0.3×ATR)
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✅ Targets
TP1 0.3346 (Apr 28 daily low) – 2.0R
TP2 0.3061 (Apr 19 low) – 4.3R
TP3 0.2772 (March base) – 6.6R
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⚖️ Risk: size so a stop-out costs 1% of capital (stop is ~3.4% from entry). The Oct 30 wick at 0.3485 may cause a bounce first. Confidence: medium.
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Not financial advice. DYOR.
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