#TRUMP All of Wall Street is watching the Nov 3 midterms. But here's what a lot of traders are quietly hoping for: Washington getting absolutely nothing doneđ
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Quick refresher. Midterms aren't about the president. They're about Congress. All 435 House seats are up, plus about a third of the Senate. Right now Republicans hold the White House and both chambers, so Trump has a pretty clear runway for whatever he wants to push.
That runway's looking shaky. Trump's approval is stuck in the 30s, and history's brutal on this one: the lower the president's approval, the worse his party gets hit in the midterms. The House sits at 218-214. Dems only need to flip 3 seats, they're up almost 9 points in national polls, and most people already expect them to take it.
So what does that mean for stocks? Probably a split government. The White House and Congress block each other, big spending bills stall, and nothing radical gets through. Sounds like a mess. The market kinda loves it, because nobody's flipping the rules on you overnight.
Here's the stat that matters. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been up in the 12 months after every single midterm. 19 for 19, averaging close to 21%, no matter which party won đ
The market was never scared of who wins. It's scared of not knowing. So if stocks get jumpy this week, don't panic. Once the results are in, the money has come back every single time.
Quick refresher. Midterms aren't about the president. They're about Congress. All 435 House seats are up, plus about a third of the Senate. Right now Republicans hold the White House and both chambers, so Trump has a pretty clear runway for whatever he wants to push.
That runway's looking shaky. Trump's approval is stuck in the 30s, and history's brutal on this one: the lower the president's approval, the worse his party gets hit in the midterms. The House sits at 218-214. Dems only need to flip 3 seats, they're up almost 9 points in national polls, and most people already expect them to take it.
So what does that mean for stocks? Probably a split government. The White House and Congress block each other, big spending bills stall, and nothing radical gets through. Sounds like a mess. The market kinda loves it, because nobody's flipping the rules on you overnight.
Here's the stat that matters. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been up in the 12 months after every single midterm. 19 for 19, averaging close to 21%, no matter which party won đ
The market was never scared of who wins. It's scared of not knowing. So if stocks get jumpy this week, don't panic. Once the results are in, the money has come back every single time.
