Wall Street Tuesday: a quiet drift higher into the Fed
Dow +0.03% to 52,378, S&P +0.6% to 7,723, Nasdaq +1.2% to 26,478. AI and chips did most of the lifting. VIX cooled to around 17.5. Breadth was decent but nothing explosive. Nobody wanted to make big bets before the meeting.
đŠ FOMC today (statement at 2pm ET, about 1am Thursday VN time)
Base case is a hold at 3.75â4.00%, with only ~9% odds of a hike. No SEP or dot plot this meeting. The market still prices a December hike at 80%+, so what matters is the statement wording and Warshâs presser: does the âfurther tighteningâ path soften or not? With oil high and inflation sticky, the bias stays hawkish.
⥠Oil: Brent settled around $113.88 (â1.7%), still close to cycle highs. WTI sits at ~$100â101. The Hormuz supply risk isnât resolved.
đ 10Y yield ~4.99â5.00%, DXY firm at ~102.4.
đ Asia open
đ„ Gold ~$4,055â4,070 (Tuesday close $4,060, +1.1%)
đ„ Silver ~$54.00â54.50
âż Bitcoin ~$80,600â81,100
Î ETH ~$2,350â2,370
Levels Iâm watching :
đ„ XAU: Support 4,020 / 4,000 / 3,990. Resistance 4,080 / 4,100 / 4,140. The bounce looks like pre-event positioning, and 4,000 is the line into the print.
đ„ XAG: Support 53.50 / 53.00. Resistance 55.00 / 56.00. Lagging gold for now, so it needs to hold 54.
âż BTC: Support 80,000 / 79,400 / 79,000. Resistance 81,200 / 82,000 / 84,000. Range-bound ahead of the decision. If 80k goes, the recent bounce likely fades.
â ïž Itâs an event day. Cash is a position until the statement and presser are out. A hold is already priced in, so the real reaction will come down to tone and oil.
TRADE $BTC | $XAG | $XAU HEREđ
Dow +0.03% to 52,378, S&P +0.6% to 7,723, Nasdaq +1.2% to 26,478. AI and chips did most of the lifting. VIX cooled to around 17.5. Breadth was decent but nothing explosive. Nobody wanted to make big bets before the meeting.
đŠ FOMC today (statement at 2pm ET, about 1am Thursday VN time)
Base case is a hold at 3.75â4.00%, with only ~9% odds of a hike. No SEP or dot plot this meeting. The market still prices a December hike at 80%+, so what matters is the statement wording and Warshâs presser: does the âfurther tighteningâ path soften or not? With oil high and inflation sticky, the bias stays hawkish.
⥠Oil: Brent settled around $113.88 (â1.7%), still close to cycle highs. WTI sits at ~$100â101. The Hormuz supply risk isnât resolved.
đ 10Y yield ~4.99â5.00%, DXY firm at ~102.4.
đ Asia open
đ„ Gold ~$4,055â4,070 (Tuesday close $4,060, +1.1%)
đ„ Silver ~$54.00â54.50
âż Bitcoin ~$80,600â81,100
Î ETH ~$2,350â2,370
Levels Iâm watching :
đ„ XAU: Support 4,020 / 4,000 / 3,990. Resistance 4,080 / 4,100 / 4,140. The bounce looks like pre-event positioning, and 4,000 is the line into the print.
đ„ XAG: Support 53.50 / 53.00. Resistance 55.00 / 56.00. Lagging gold for now, so it needs to hold 54.
âż BTC: Support 80,000 / 79,400 / 79,000. Resistance 81,200 / 82,000 / 84,000. Range-bound ahead of the decision. If 80k goes, the recent bounce likely fades.
â ïž Itâs an event day. Cash is a position until the statement and presser are out. A hold is already priced in, so the real reaction will come down to tone and oil.
TRADE $BTC | $XAG | $XAU HEREđ
