XRP is approaching a critical turning point as institutional ETF inflows return while whale activity raises concerns about potential selling pressure. Although U.S. spot XRP ETFs reportedly attracted $4.26 million in inflows, the broader market structure remains uncertain.
ETF Inflows Offer Support, but Confirmation Is Still Needed
According to the report published by AMBCrypto, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $4.26 million in inflows during the reported week, recovering after their first weekly outflow in 13 weeks. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs experienced more than $225 million in outflows over the same period.
This divergence suggests that institutional investors may be showing relatively greater interest in XRP than Ethereum. However, a single week of positive ETF flows does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a sustained bullish trend.
XRP must demonstrate stronger price action and break key resistance levels before this institutional demand can be considered a reliable bullish signal.
Whale Distribution Raises Concerns
Despite positive ETF inflows, on-chain data cited in the report suggests that some large XRP holders may be reducing their exposure.
The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP reportedly declined from 351 to 339. At the same time, XRP reserves on exchanges increased from approximately 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion.
These developments could indicate rising selling pressure. However, exchange inflows do not automatically mean that investors are selling, and changes in wallet counts alone cannot confirm coordinated whale distribution.
Nevertheless, if large holders continue transferring XRP to exchanges while demand weakens, the market could face additional downside pressure.
Why the $1.20 Level Matters
XRP has reportedly been consolidating above the $1.20 level for more than ten weeks. Extended consolidation can precede a significant breakout, but the direction depends on whether buyers can absorb the available supply.
If buying pressure strengthens and XRP breaks above its key resistance levels, the current consolidation could eventually resolve to the upside.
On the other hand, if whale selling continues and the broader crypto market remains weak, XRP could lose its $1.20 support zone.
A sustained breakdown below this level could expose XRP to further downside, with $1 becoming an important psychological level to monitor. However, a move toward $1 remains a risk scenario rather than a confirmed outcome.
My view: XRP is at a critical decision point. Positive ETF inflows alone are not sufficient to confirm a bullish reversal while potential distribution remains a concern. A breakdown below $1.20 could increase the probability of a move toward $1, whereas sustained demand and a confirmed resistance breakout would strengthen the bullish case.
For now, capital preservation and confirmation of price action are more important than making decisions based on ETF inflows alone.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and all price scenarios are conditional rather than guaranteed.