BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE MAY BE EASING,
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is showing a notable shift. According to the Glassnode report highlighted by Crypto Briefing on October 26, the share of short-term holder supply sitting in profit has fallen from nearly 100% to around 70%.
This change could influence how recent buyers behave and how much selling pressure Bitcoin faces next. But does it signal a potential recovery, or is the market still vulnerable to further downside?
• SHORT-TERM HOLDER PROFITS ARE SHRINKING
Glassnode tracks short-term holders as investors whose Bitcoin has been held for fewer than approximately 155 days.
When Bitcoin rallied, nearly all short-term holder supply was in profit, creating an incentive for some investors to sell and lock in gains.
With the metric now around 70%, profitability has declined considerably. This suggests that the cushion of unrealized gains among recent buyers has narrowed.
• WHY THIS COULD FAVOR BUYERS
When fewer recent buyers have substantial unrealized profits, the incentive to take profits may weaken.
If selling from profitable short-term holders continues to ease while fresh demand returns, Bitcoin could find it easier to stabilize and recover.
However, this is a potential tailwind, not proof that buyers have regained control.
• THE BEARISH RISK HAS NOT DISAPPEARED
Around 70% of short-term holder supply remains in profit, meaning some investors could still sell to secure gains.
Meanwhile, if Bitcoin continues falling, more recent buyers could move into losses. That may trigger additional selling, particularly if market confidence deteriorates.
A lower profit rate alone cannot tell us whether the market has reached a bottom.
Traders should monitor three key factors:
• Price action: Can BTC establish a stable base and reclaim important resistance levels?
• Trading volume: Does buying activity increase during a recovery, or do sellers remain dominant?
• On-chain flows: Does profit-taking continue to cool, and are exchange inflows consistent with reduced selling pressure?
The strongest bullish confirmation would come from improving price action alongside renewed spot demand and easing distribution from short-term holders.
Bitcoin’s declining short-term holder profitability may reduce one source of selling pressure. But without stronger demand and confirmation from price action, it is too early to call this a bullish reversal.
The next move will depend on whether buyers absorb the remaining supply or sellers regain control.
YOUR TAKE: Is Bitcoin preparing for a recovery as profit-taking cools, or could another leg down push more short-term holders into losses?
Share your view in the comments. 👇
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