$OIL futures dropped 2.5% overnight and tapped that yellow trendline clean — textbook rejection off Friday's high. Everyone screaming "fundamentals only" needs to zoom out. Price respects structure, period.
Yellow wedge is the main pattern. Blue lines are your next levels once it breaks. Could go either way, but we're near the top of the range and historical value sits way lower. I'm leaning short until proven otherwise.
On fundamentals: we've had 6 months of war, Hormuz choked, Trump rattling sabers — yet $OIL isn't at $120, $150, or $200 like the permabulls promised. Why? Refining capacity is the cap. The world can't process more crude. Russia and Middle East refineries keep getting hit. So crude stays range-bound while crack spreads rip and your pump price climbs.
Short side makes sense here. Wedge break will confirm direction, but until then, fade the top.
Yellow wedge is the main pattern. Blue lines are your next levels once it breaks. Could go either way, but we're near the top of the range and historical value sits way lower. I'm leaning short until proven otherwise.
On fundamentals: we've had 6 months of war, Hormuz choked, Trump rattling sabers — yet $OIL isn't at $120, $150, or $200 like the permabulls promised. Why? Refining capacity is the cap. The world can't process more crude. Russia and Middle East refineries keep getting hit. So crude stays range-bound while crack spreads rip and your pump price climbs.
Short side makes sense here. Wedge break will confirm direction, but until then, fade the top.