$BNB is ~$736.6 at 11:00 ICT Oct 26 on Binance spot. On Oct 24 it swept down to $718 and closed the day right back at $740. Here is my plan: bid the EMA50 retest, don't chase the reclaim.

đŸ”„ What's moving it

‱ Macro first: BTC is ~$80.8K, under its 1D EMA20 and stuck in a slow grind. BNB is not escaping that on its own.

‱ Oct 19: the 37th quarterly burn removed 1,646,196 BNB (~$1.2B at the time). Remaining supply: 131,512,085 BNB (BNB Chain).

‱ Oct 23: BNB Chain Q3 network revenue rose 54% to $54.2M, led by $25.6B of tokenized-stock trading. Daily active addresses fell 14% to 2.10M (TokenPost).

‱ Oct 28: the Jenner hard fork goes live on BSC testnet: Payment Lane (5% of block gas reserved for payments), millisecond timestamps and the base for the CAS20 compliant-asset standard. Mainnet date is not announced yet.

Solid fundamentals and a dated testnet event, but nothing that forces price this week. The tape decides.

📊 Daily (1D)

Since Oct 15 BNB has ranged $705.86–751.86. The floor held Oct 15 ($708.64), Oct 17 ($710.15), Oct 18 ($705.86) and Oct 24 ($718.00). The top rejected Oct 21 ($751.86) and Oct 23 ($750.50).

Oct 24 printed a long lower wick ($741.53 high, $718.00 low, $740.00 close) on ~1.1x the 20-day average volume.

Price sits between the daily EMA20 (~$741.3) and EMA50 (~$734.0), well above the EMA200 (~$690.6). Wilder RSI(14) ~48: neutral, no edge from momentum alone.

⏱ 4H

The 19:00 ICT 4H candle on Oct 24 dumped to $718 on ~2.2x average volume. The two candles that reclaimed $740 came on only ~0.5x.

4H EMA20 (~$736.7) and EMA50 (~$736.1) are flat and tangled. Wilder RSI(14) ~52.

A low-volume reclaim often gets retested. That retest into $728–734 is where I want to be a buyer.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

‱ Bid: $728–734 (1D EMA50 + 4H EMAs, Oct 23 base)

‱ TP1: $748–752 (Oct 21–23 highs, ~1.0–1.2R from $731)

‱ TP2: $772–778 (Oct 7 breakdown area, ~2.4–2.8R)

‱ Out: 4H close below $715 (stop $714, risk ~2.3%)

‱ Bull trigger: 4H close above $752 opens the $772–778 zone

‱ Bear case: lose $715 and the $706–712 range floor is the last shelf. Below that, the daily EMA200 at ~$686–692 comes into play.

TP1 alone is only ~1R, so I trim there and let the rest work toward TP2.

💭 My take

I like this structure more than most majors right now: price is above the daily EMA50 and EMA200 and the range floor keeps getting bought. But the bounce volume is thin, BTC is weak, and a range top that rejected twice is right overhead. So it's a limit bid on the retest, not a market buy at $736.6. If BTC loses $80K I step aside. If $715 goes on a 4H close, I'm wrong.

Would you bid $BNB at the $728–734 retest, or wait for a 4H close above $752? 👇

NFA. DYOR.