11 days until midterms. Markets are pricing in chaos.
91% odds Dems take the House. 66% they flip the Senate too. Trump approval at 37% — lowest pre-midterm ever. Iran war + oil spike killing his numbers.
What this means for $SPY:
Divided Congress = gridlock = hard to pass anything big.
Alpine Macro: "pain before gains." $SPY up 11% in 9 months vs 1.6% historical avg. Correction incoming, pre or post-election. That dip? Buy it.
Morgan Stanley: since 1930, $SPY averages +13% in the 12 months after midterms.
Morningstar: "Markets rally 84% of midterm Novembers. Not because of who wins — because uncertainty ends."
$BTC has the most at stake:
CLARITY Act (crypto regulatory framework) already dead in Senate. Dem House = zero chance of revival before 2029.
But gridlock = more deficit spending = bullish for scarce assets like gold and $BTC.
Fed decides Oct 28, one week before election. Only 16% odds of a hike.
Trump hinted Iran deal could drop post-election. If oil crashes, inflation cools, Fed has no excuse to keep hiking.
Short-term noise. But history says the year after midterms is one of the best for equities. Position accordingly.
91% odds Dems take the House. 66% they flip the Senate too. Trump approval at 37% — lowest pre-midterm ever. Iran war + oil spike killing his numbers.
What this means for $SPY:
Divided Congress = gridlock = hard to pass anything big.
Alpine Macro: "pain before gains." $SPY up 11% in 9 months vs 1.6% historical avg. Correction incoming, pre or post-election. That dip? Buy it.
Morgan Stanley: since 1930, $SPY averages +13% in the 12 months after midterms.
Morningstar: "Markets rally 84% of midterm Novembers. Not because of who wins — because uncertainty ends."
$BTC has the most at stake:
CLARITY Act (crypto regulatory framework) already dead in Senate. Dem House = zero chance of revival before 2029.
But gridlock = more deficit spending = bullish for scarce assets like gold and $BTC.
Fed decides Oct 28, one week before election. Only 16% odds of a hike.
Trump hinted Iran deal could drop post-election. If oil crashes, inflation cools, Fed has no excuse to keep hiking.
Short-term noise. But history says the year after midterms is one of the best for equities. Position accordingly.