The Fed's hiking cycles rarely end gracefully. History shows most tightening episodes conclude with something breaking — a recession, a credit event, a market dislocation. The question isn't *if* overtightening creates problems, but *when* the damage becomes visible.

Right now, markets are priced for a soft landing. Corporate spreads are tight, equities near highs, credit flowing freely. But the lag effects of monetary policy are long and variable. The full impact of 525 basis points of hikes may not show up for quarters.

Watch the usual suspects: commercial real estate stress, small business loan delinquencies, consumer credit card defaults, regional bank deposit flight. These are the canaries. When they start chirping louder, the runway gets shorter.

This time isn't different. It's just not obvious yet.