JPM finally added $BTC to their long-term outlook — first time ever — and they're saying it'll outperform over the next decade. Cool, right? Except they won't actually recommend it because "volatility is too high."
Here's the funny part: they're projecting 55% annualized volatility. But right now? It's just over 30%. So they're basically assuming volatility will almost double from here.
Meanwhile, volumes are super low. If price starts climbing and spot volumes pick up, you'd think volatility would chill out, not spike. That's how it usually works — more liquidity, smoother ride.
So why is JPM modeling higher volatility when the trend is going the other way? Maybe they're being extra conservative. Maybe they don't want to look too bullish. Or maybe they just don't want retail piling in based on their word.
Either way, it's a weird flex: "We think it'll do well, but we're gonna scare you with numbers that don't match the present." Classic big bank energy — acknowledge the thing, but hedge every word so hard you say nothing at all.
Here's the funny part: they're projecting 55% annualized volatility. But right now? It's just over 30%. So they're basically assuming volatility will almost double from here.
Meanwhile, volumes are super low. If price starts climbing and spot volumes pick up, you'd think volatility would chill out, not spike. That's how it usually works — more liquidity, smoother ride.
So why is JPM modeling higher volatility when the trend is going the other way? Maybe they're being extra conservative. Maybe they don't want to look too bullish. Or maybe they just don't want retail piling in based on their word.
Either way, it's a weird flex: "We think it'll do well, but we're gonna scare you with numbers that don't match the present." Classic big bank energy — acknowledge the thing, but hedge every word so hard you say nothing at all.