Both Ethereum L2s unlocked this week. 92.65M ARB ($18.4M) on Oct 16, and 127M STRK ($15.6M) on Oct 15 — and the tape treated them very differently.
$ARB fell ~8% into its unlock (to ~$0.174 on Oct 15), then bounced: it's $0.1918 now, +5.4% on the week, and just poked back above its 20-day average ($0.1906) with RSI back to 51. The unlock got sold on rumor and absorbed on the event — the textbook monthly-unlock pattern, and this one repeats every month until early 2027. A base is forming, but it lives or dies at the 30-day low: $0.1727.
$STRK is the other side of the coin. Flat at $0.056, -27% on the week, volume running at a quarter of normal. No bounce, no base — just the floor after a 140% 14-day range. The unlock landed and the buyers never showed.
That's the lesson: unlock ≠ sell. The schedule tells you when tokens become available and who gets them. It tells you nothing about whether they actually sold — watch the tape, not the calendar.
Watch ARB's $0.1727 line and whether STRK can pull any volume back at all. Which one looks like a base to you?
$ARB fell ~8% into its unlock (to ~$0.174 on Oct 15), then bounced: it's $0.1918 now, +5.4% on the week, and just poked back above its 20-day average ($0.1906) with RSI back to 51. The unlock got sold on rumor and absorbed on the event — the textbook monthly-unlock pattern, and this one repeats every month until early 2027. A base is forming, but it lives or dies at the 30-day low: $0.1727.
$STRK is the other side of the coin. Flat at $0.056, -27% on the week, volume running at a quarter of normal. No bounce, no base — just the floor after a 140% 14-day range. The unlock landed and the buyers never showed.
That's the lesson: unlock ≠ sell. The schedule tells you when tokens become available and who gets them. It tells you nothing about whether they actually sold — watch the tape, not the calendar.
Watch ARB's $0.1727 line and whether STRK can pull any volume back at all. Which one looks like a base to you?