Goldman notes something worth remembering: when GDP growth is positive but *slowing*, the $SPX typically returns 3% per quarter. When growth is *accelerating*, it's 5%.
This matters now. We're likely in the deceleration phase—still growing, but losing steam. The market hasn't fully priced that in yet. Valuations assume acceleration continues forever.
History says expect more chop, lower returns, and multiple compression if earnings don't bail us out. The 5% party requires reacceleration. We're not there.
This matters now. We're likely in the deceleration phase—still growing, but losing steam. The market hasn't fully priced that in yet. Valuations assume acceleration continues forever.
History says expect more chop, lower returns, and multiple compression if earnings don't bail us out. The 5% party requires reacceleration. We're not there.