Weekend deep dive
$IONQ : IonQ, trapped-ion quantum computers plus quantum networking and security, and since Jul 31 owner of chipmaker SkyWater. Friday close 31.28, the lowest close since April 13. Down 58% from the June 3 high of 73.65 and 30% this year.
✅️ What I like
Chart: it's back at the $30 area that held on Feb 5, Feb 23, Mar 20 and again on Oct 15 (low 30.03). Thursday bounced 9.3% off it.
Fundamentals: Q2 2026 revenue was $80.1M, up 287% year on year, which the company calls a record. On Sep 8 it raised its 2026 revenue guide to $450–460M, now including SkyWater. On Oct 7 it moved to DARPA's QBI Stage C, with a potential value of up to $300M, subject to future funding. The offering that closed Oct 16 added about $1.99B net.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: it lost the Jul 29 low of 31.81 (the bottom of the summer range) on Oct 14, on 41.4M shares, about 1.9x the average of the prior 50 sessions. It's under the 50-day (40.76) and 200-day (42.92).
Fundamentals: big losses. Q2 net loss $1.87B, adjusted EBITDA loss $120.3M. Heavy dilution: 381.0M shares on Jun 30, 408.9M before the offering, 429.4M after. On top of that come 29.5M pre-funded warrants, 100M warrants at $69.46, and the all-stock Elisity deal (up to $1.3B, roughly 26–39M shares). No Q3 date yet.
💡 Trade idea: no clean pattern. It's below the range floor. I'd only take a reclaim of the Oct 15 high:
Confirm 34.36 · TP1 40.24 · TP2 45.40 · TP3 47.94 · Invalid 30.03
Risk to Invalid is about 13%, so small size.
💰 Investment: a small starter at 30–32, adding at 25.89–29.91 (the Mar–Apr base). A weekly close under 25.89 breaks it.
Trade and investment charts added
Not financial advice
#stocks
$IONQ : IonQ, trapped-ion quantum computers plus quantum networking and security, and since Jul 31 owner of chipmaker SkyWater. Friday close 31.28, the lowest close since April 13. Down 58% from the June 3 high of 73.65 and 30% this year.
✅️ What I like
Chart: it's back at the $30 area that held on Feb 5, Feb 23, Mar 20 and again on Oct 15 (low 30.03). Thursday bounced 9.3% off it.
Fundamentals: Q2 2026 revenue was $80.1M, up 287% year on year, which the company calls a record. On Sep 8 it raised its 2026 revenue guide to $450–460M, now including SkyWater. On Oct 7 it moved to DARPA's QBI Stage C, with a potential value of up to $300M, subject to future funding. The offering that closed Oct 16 added about $1.99B net.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: it lost the Jul 29 low of 31.81 (the bottom of the summer range) on Oct 14, on 41.4M shares, about 1.9x the average of the prior 50 sessions. It's under the 50-day (40.76) and 200-day (42.92).
Fundamentals: big losses. Q2 net loss $1.87B, adjusted EBITDA loss $120.3M. Heavy dilution: 381.0M shares on Jun 30, 408.9M before the offering, 429.4M after. On top of that come 29.5M pre-funded warrants, 100M warrants at $69.46, and the all-stock Elisity deal (up to $1.3B, roughly 26–39M shares). No Q3 date yet.
💡 Trade idea: no clean pattern. It's below the range floor. I'd only take a reclaim of the Oct 15 high:
Confirm 34.36 · TP1 40.24 · TP2 45.40 · TP3 47.94 · Invalid 30.03
Risk to Invalid is about 13%, so small size.
💰 Investment: a small starter at 30–32, adding at 25.89–29.91 (the Mar–Apr base). A weekly close under 25.89 breaks it.
Trade and investment charts added
Not financial advice
#stocks