Weekend deep dive
$AAOIB : Applied Optoelectronics, optical transceivers for AI data centers plus CATV gear. Friday close 75.57, down 42% from the Oct 6 high of 131.15 in 8 sessions and 68% from its May high of 233.67. Still up 117% this year.
✅️ What I like
Chart: it's at the July 29 low (76.01) and the March 31 low (78.57), the floor since the Feb 27 earnings gap.
Fundamentals: Q2 2026 revenue $191.9M vs $103.0M a year ago (+86%), a fifth straight record. Data center revenue $107.7M vs $44.8M. Non-GAAP profit $5.5M. Q3 guide $255–290M, and management forecasts demand will outpace capacity through mid-2027.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: no reversal. Friday closed near the day's low (75.43), under the July low, well below the 50-day (110.99) and 200-day (112.22).
Fundamentals: GAAP net loss $22.8M in Q2. Top 10 customers were 99% of Q2 revenue, the top three 42%, 26% and 24%. Heavy dilution: shares went from 75.0M at Dec 31 to 84.6M on Aug 3, then a $600M ATM sold 5.69M more at $105.36, completed Oct 5. Q3 results Nov 5.
💡 Trade idea: no clean pattern. I'd only trade a reclaim of the Oct 15 high:
Confirm 85.02 · TP1 96.14 · TP2 106.41 · TP3 117.16 · Invalid 75.43
Risk to Invalid is about 11%, so small size.
💰 Investment: a starter near 66–79 (between the Feb 27 gap and the March/July lows), adding in the 59–66 gap. A weekly close under 49.95 breaks it.
Trade and investment charts added
Not financial advice
#stocks
$AAOIB : Applied Optoelectronics, optical transceivers for AI data centers plus CATV gear. Friday close 75.57, down 42% from the Oct 6 high of 131.15 in 8 sessions and 68% from its May high of 233.67. Still up 117% this year.
✅️ What I like
Chart: it's at the July 29 low (76.01) and the March 31 low (78.57), the floor since the Feb 27 earnings gap.
Fundamentals: Q2 2026 revenue $191.9M vs $103.0M a year ago (+86%), a fifth straight record. Data center revenue $107.7M vs $44.8M. Non-GAAP profit $5.5M. Q3 guide $255–290M, and management forecasts demand will outpace capacity through mid-2027.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: no reversal. Friday closed near the day's low (75.43), under the July low, well below the 50-day (110.99) and 200-day (112.22).
Fundamentals: GAAP net loss $22.8M in Q2. Top 10 customers were 99% of Q2 revenue, the top three 42%, 26% and 24%. Heavy dilution: shares went from 75.0M at Dec 31 to 84.6M on Aug 3, then a $600M ATM sold 5.69M more at $105.36, completed Oct 5. Q3 results Nov 5.
💡 Trade idea: no clean pattern. I'd only trade a reclaim of the Oct 15 high:
Confirm 85.02 · TP1 96.14 · TP2 106.41 · TP3 117.16 · Invalid 75.43
Risk to Invalid is about 11%, so small size.
💰 Investment: a starter near 66–79 (between the Feb 27 gap and the March/July lows), adding in the 59–66 gap. A weekly close under 49.95 breaks it.
Trade and investment charts added
Not financial advice
#stocks