#octoberfedhikeoddsfalltoaround17%
October rate hike probabilities dropped from 54% → 28% → 15% in just 3 days! 🤯
But what’s really driving this sudden shift? Let’s break it down. 👇
📊 THE 3-DAY FED TIMELINE
📈 Wednesday: Hotter inflation data pushed October rate hike odds from around 21% to 54%.
📉 Thursday: Fed officials signaled no immediate urgency, bringing the odds down to roughly 28%.
📉 Friday: Kevin Warsh avoided signaling the Fed’s next move at the IMF, sending expectations down to around 15%.
⚠️ TWO THINGS THE MARKET MAY BE GETTING WRONG
1️⃣ Falling Hike Odds ≠ Cooling Inflation
🔥 US CPI stands at 3.7%, while PPI reached 6.3% YoY. The decline in rate hike expectations appears driven more by Fed communication than by clear evidence of easing inflation.
2️⃣ A Rate Hold Doesn’t Mean a Dovish Pivot
The Fed already raised rates in September to 3.75%–4.00%, while the median official projection still pointed to another hike in 2026.
That means a December move remains on the table. Don’t assume the tightening cycle is over! ⚠️
🧠 WHY WARSH’S WORDS MATTER
When the Fed avoids forward guidance, markets may interpret that silence as a dovish signal. But that interpretation can quickly reverse if incoming data or policy statements disappoint expectations.
📉 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CRYPTO
₿ BTC: Stabilizing near $82,000
💵 US Dollar: Showing weakness
📈 US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Still around 5.1%
My take? This looks more like a relief rally than a confirmed trend reversal. Traders should remain cautious until the macro picture becomes clearer.
🎯 KEY THINGS TO WATCH
🇺🇸 October 27–28 FOMC meeting
📊 Upcoming US inflation data
💵 DXY dollar index
📈 US 10-year Treasury yield
🔥 Any fresh signals from Fed officials
The market is pricing in roughly an 84% chance of a rate hold. But is that confidence justified, or could traders be getting too comfortable?
👇
October rate hike probabilities dropped from 54% → 28% → 15% in just 3 days! 🤯
But what’s really driving this sudden shift? Let’s break it down. 👇
📊 THE 3-DAY FED TIMELINE
📈 Wednesday: Hotter inflation data pushed October rate hike odds from around 21% to 54%.
📉 Thursday: Fed officials signaled no immediate urgency, bringing the odds down to roughly 28%.
📉 Friday: Kevin Warsh avoided signaling the Fed’s next move at the IMF, sending expectations down to around 15%.
⚠️ TWO THINGS THE MARKET MAY BE GETTING WRONG
1️⃣ Falling Hike Odds ≠ Cooling Inflation
🔥 US CPI stands at 3.7%, while PPI reached 6.3% YoY. The decline in rate hike expectations appears driven more by Fed communication than by clear evidence of easing inflation.
2️⃣ A Rate Hold Doesn’t Mean a Dovish Pivot
The Fed already raised rates in September to 3.75%–4.00%, while the median official projection still pointed to another hike in 2026.
That means a December move remains on the table. Don’t assume the tightening cycle is over! ⚠️
🧠 WHY WARSH’S WORDS MATTER
When the Fed avoids forward guidance, markets may interpret that silence as a dovish signal. But that interpretation can quickly reverse if incoming data or policy statements disappoint expectations.
📉 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CRYPTO
₿ BTC: Stabilizing near $82,000
💵 US Dollar: Showing weakness
📈 US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Still around 5.1%
My take? This looks more like a relief rally than a confirmed trend reversal. Traders should remain cautious until the macro picture becomes clearer.
🎯 KEY THINGS TO WATCH
🇺🇸 October 27–28 FOMC meeting
📊 Upcoming US inflation data
💵 DXY dollar index
📈 US 10-year Treasury yield
🔥 Any fresh signals from Fed officials
The market is pricing in roughly an 84% chance of a rate hold. But is that confidence justified, or could traders be getting too comfortable?
👇