My point of view
- Accumulation range from late Aug to early Sep ($76.3k to 82k), followed by a markup to $87k.
- Price swept into the grey daily OB ($84.7k to 88k) and was rejected. Wicks poke into the 1D OB.
- Bearish FVG and a lower-high structure around $83.5k to 85.6k, which is your short zone.
- Price is now at $81.6k, sitting at the base of the range and the entry area.
- Target is the sellside liquidity and sellstop at 62,627, below the August low.
BTC BEAR – Distribution after Manipulation into Daily OB
Bitcoin built a clear accumulation range from late August to early September. Price then broke out and ran into the daily order block ($84.7k–88k), sweeping the buyside liquidity above the range. This looks like the manipulation phase: it drew in late longs and tapped supply.
What I'm seeing:
- Strong rejection from the 1D OB
- Bearish FVG left behind at 83.5k–85.6k
- Lower highs forming, with price failing to reclaim the OB
- Sellside liquidity resting below the August low
Expectation:
I expect distribution to continue down toward the sellside liquidity at $62,627. If that level breaks with momentum, a deeper move toward $40k is possible.
Invalidation: a daily close above the OB high (~88k) would invalidate this idea.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Note
The $40k target isn't marked on your chart and is a big leap past 62.6k. Calling it a "possible extension" rather than a target.
