Memory stocks got hammered this week on two fears:
1. China now
2. Oversupply in 2029
Last five days: $SKHY down 26%, Samsung down 22%, $MU down 11%.
First trigger was CXMT announcing a denser server DRAM cell. Analysts pushed back hard. Quilter Cheviot's Ben Barringer pointed out that a new cell means nothing if yields are weak — 50% yield means half your chips are garbage. Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy said the move won't shift supply-demand.
Second trigger was a Maeil Business column citing a Seoul National professor and a semiconductor exec who see a flood of new capacity turning the market into a red ocean by 2029. By 2030 the super-cycle could be done. Elon jumped in on X saying China will be making a lot of RAM in 2028.
Counterpoint's Jeongku Choi told CNBC the market structure has changed. Suppliers and buyers are now signing three- to five-year deals with upfront payments, price floors, and ceilings. Even if a down cycle hits, the drop should be less violent than past cycles.
Counterpoint sees DRAM prices falling about 23% in 2028 versus 2027 — but still up 230% versus 2025. New plants take three to five years to come online.
So here's the question:
If long-term contracts already have floors and ceilings, and Chinese volume is still unproven, does a 26% drop in $SKHY price in real 2029 oversupply — or just the end of the easy AI run?
A five-day selloff is not a 2029 supply calendar.
1. China now
2. Oversupply in 2029
Last five days: $SKHY down 26%, Samsung down 22%, $MU down 11%.
First trigger was CXMT announcing a denser server DRAM cell. Analysts pushed back hard. Quilter Cheviot's Ben Barringer pointed out that a new cell means nothing if yields are weak — 50% yield means half your chips are garbage. Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy said the move won't shift supply-demand.
Second trigger was a Maeil Business column citing a Seoul National professor and a semiconductor exec who see a flood of new capacity turning the market into a red ocean by 2029. By 2030 the super-cycle could be done. Elon jumped in on X saying China will be making a lot of RAM in 2028.
Counterpoint's Jeongku Choi told CNBC the market structure has changed. Suppliers and buyers are now signing three- to five-year deals with upfront payments, price floors, and ceilings. Even if a down cycle hits, the drop should be less violent than past cycles.
Counterpoint sees DRAM prices falling about 23% in 2028 versus 2027 — but still up 230% versus 2025. New plants take three to five years to come online.
So here's the question:
If long-term contracts already have floors and ceilings, and Chinese volume is still unproven, does a 26% drop in $SKHY price in real 2029 oversupply — or just the end of the easy AI run?
A five-day selloff is not a 2029 supply calendar.