$XAUT
Sell Again : CPI Flushed Gold to 4,073. Now 4,159 Decides
Gold dropped nearly 2% on the CPI print, stopped about 7 points above the 4,066 swing low, and bounced straight back into the same supply zone. Price now sits at 4,157, right on the 0.382 of the whole drop.
📍 What the CPI changed
September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year against 3.6% expected, up from 3.4% in August. Core rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. The odds of a Fed hike at the Oct 27-28 meeting jumped above 40%, and gold fell to 4,073 on Oct 14, its lowest since Oct 7.
This morning the dollar and Treasury yields gave back part of their post-CPI move, and gold is up about 1%, near 4,157 as I write (10:14 GMT+1). My read: this is a bounce on a softer dollar, not a new trend.
🧠 Why 4,159 to 4,172 is the zone
On my range from 4,217 to 4,066, price is back at the 0.382 (4,159.60) and just under the supply block at 4,159.9 to 4,171.75 that rejected it before CPI. The small supply at 4,117 to 4,134 is gone, price traded through it, so I stopped using it. The 4,066 low was never broken, which means sell-side liquidity is still sitting below.
My short idea, after rejection:
Entry zone: 4,159 to 4,172, after a 1h rejection candle, not in the middle of an impulse.
Targets: 4,141.8 (0.5), 4,124 (0.618), 4,099.6 (0.78).
Stop: above 4,175. From 4,160 that is roughly 1 to 4.
⚠️ What breaks it
A 1h close above 4,172 cancels the idea. Next supply is 4,200 to 4,217.
PPI and retail sales land at 12:30 GMT today (consensus about +0.5% and +0.3%). Wicks on data are fast, so I don’t enter right before the release.
The rebound has the dollar and yields behind it. If both keep falling, supply gets absorbed.
🎯 The plan
Rejection already do and entry now: I work toward the three targets. Close above 4,172: I step aside and watch 4,200.
Not financial advice.
#CPIWatch
Sell Again : CPI Flushed Gold to 4,073. Now 4,159 Decides
Gold dropped nearly 2% on the CPI print, stopped about 7 points above the 4,066 swing low, and bounced straight back into the same supply zone. Price now sits at 4,157, right on the 0.382 of the whole drop.
📍 What the CPI changed
September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year against 3.6% expected, up from 3.4% in August. Core rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. The odds of a Fed hike at the Oct 27-28 meeting jumped above 40%, and gold fell to 4,073 on Oct 14, its lowest since Oct 7.
This morning the dollar and Treasury yields gave back part of their post-CPI move, and gold is up about 1%, near 4,157 as I write (10:14 GMT+1). My read: this is a bounce on a softer dollar, not a new trend.
🧠 Why 4,159 to 4,172 is the zone
On my range from 4,217 to 4,066, price is back at the 0.382 (4,159.60) and just under the supply block at 4,159.9 to 4,171.75 that rejected it before CPI. The small supply at 4,117 to 4,134 is gone, price traded through it, so I stopped using it. The 4,066 low was never broken, which means sell-side liquidity is still sitting below.
My short idea, after rejection:
Entry zone: 4,159 to 4,172, after a 1h rejection candle, not in the middle of an impulse.
Targets: 4,141.8 (0.5), 4,124 (0.618), 4,099.6 (0.78).
Stop: above 4,175. From 4,160 that is roughly 1 to 4.
⚠️ What breaks it
A 1h close above 4,172 cancels the idea. Next supply is 4,200 to 4,217.
PPI and retail sales land at 12:30 GMT today (consensus about +0.5% and +0.3%). Wicks on data are fast, so I don’t enter right before the release.
The rebound has the dollar and yields behind it. If both keep falling, supply gets absorbed.
🎯 The plan
Rejection already do and entry now: I work toward the three targets. Close above 4,172: I step aside and watch 4,200.
Not financial advice.
#CPIWatch