#CPIWatch | Sept CPI: Oil's Hot, but the Real Test Is Core 🛢️📊
Middle East tensions have pushed oil to [$X], and energy costs are feeding straight into headline inflation. Markets expect September CPI to print around [X% m/m / X% y/y].
My view:
Headline CPI will likely come in hot, since energy is doing the heavy lifting.
Core CPI is what matters. A core print of 0.3% or higher revives Fed hike bets, and a soft 0.1% pushes them out.
Treasuries: the 10Y is near [X%]. A hot core pushes yields higher and a soft one pulls them back. I'm watching [level] as the key line.
My plan:
If core surprises up: I stay cautious on duration and expect volatility in oil-linked trades.
If core cools: yields could ease, and risk assets like BTC often get relief.
Either way, I keep position sizes small until the print is out.
Middle East tensions have pushed oil to [$X], and energy costs are feeding straight into headline inflation. Markets expect September CPI to print around [X% m/m / X% y/y].
My view:
Headline CPI will likely come in hot, since energy is doing the heavy lifting.
Core CPI is what matters. A core print of 0.3% or higher revives Fed hike bets, and a soft 0.1% pushes them out.
Treasuries: the 10Y is near [X%]. A hot core pushes yields higher and a soft one pulls them back. I'm watching [level] as the key line.
My plan:
If core surprises up: I stay cautious on duration and expect volatility in oil-linked trades.
If core cools: yields could ease, and risk assets like BTC often get relief.
Either way, I keep position sizes small until the print is out.