#CPIWatch
Markets reacted sharply to today’s CPI report, but October Fed pricing showed a smaller shift.
September inflation:
• Core monthly: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected
• Core annual: 2.6% vs. 2.5%
• Headline monthly: 0.6%, matching expectations
• Headline annual: 3.7% vs. 3.6%
Compared with my previous post, FedWatch snapshot showed October hike odds rising from 20.5% to 25.5%. A hold remains the base case at 74.5%.
Meanwhile, $TLT.ETF continues higher after hours. Watching whether that strength holds into tomorrow’s session.
Next up: PPI and retail sales, followed by Warsh’s comments. Consensus is looking for 0.5% monthly PPI and 0.3% retail sales growth.
If those releases add to the inflation pressure, October hike odds could build further. Softer data could reinforce the hold scenario.
A strong market reaction—but no decisive shift in the October policy outlook yet.
$TLT.ETF
Markets reacted sharply to today’s CPI report, but October Fed pricing showed a smaller shift.
September inflation:
• Core monthly: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected
• Core annual: 2.6% vs. 2.5%
• Headline monthly: 0.6%, matching expectations
• Headline annual: 3.7% vs. 3.6%
Compared with my previous post, FedWatch snapshot showed October hike odds rising from 20.5% to 25.5%. A hold remains the base case at 74.5%.
Meanwhile, $TLT.ETF continues higher after hours. Watching whether that strength holds into tomorrow’s session.
Next up: PPI and retail sales, followed by Warsh’s comments. Consensus is looking for 0.5% monthly PPI and 0.3% retail sales growth.
If those releases add to the inflation pressure, October hike odds could build further. Softer data could reinforce the hold scenario.
A strong market reaction—but no decisive shift in the October policy outlook yet.
$TLT.ETF