The probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 53.7% after the CPI blew past expectations.
My fellow bears can sleep easy. Bulls, set your stop-losses, set your alarms, and wake up every so often to check whether your positions are still there. Once they’re gone, you can sleep easy too.
My guess for the next part of the script is that tomorrow night’s PPI will push the probability even higher, triggering another wave of panic.
Then, by the October 28 FOMC meeting, the uncertainty will probably remain around 50% going into the meeting, but they ultimately won’t hike.
After all, the midterm elections are coming up in November, so they still have to save some face.
The pressure will simply be pushed to December and January 2027. The Fed has always been like this.
My fellow bears can sleep easy. Bulls, set your stop-losses, set your alarms, and wake up every so often to check whether your positions are still there. Once they’re gone, you can sleep easy too.
My guess for the next part of the script is that tomorrow night’s PPI will push the probability even higher, triggering another wave of panic.
Then, by the October 28 FOMC meeting, the uncertainty will probably remain around 50% going into the meeting, but they ultimately won’t hike.
After all, the midterm elections are coming up in November, so they still have to save some face.
The pressure will simply be pushed to December and January 2027. The Fed has always been like this.