#CPIWatch
Sept CPI drops in hours. My plan for Oil and Treasuries
The setup:
- Headline CPI expected ~3.7% YoY (Aug: 3.4%)
- Core expected ~2.4% YoY, 0.2–0.3% MoM
- Record Sept gas prices, Brent ~$106
- 10Y yield ~5.25%, near a 24-year high
My take: a high headline number is already priced in. Core is what matters.
Hot core (0.4%+): yields push toward 5.35%. $TBT up, $TMF down.
In-line core (0.2–0.3%): Fed waits for Dec. Yields stay 5.20–5.35%.
Soft core (0.1% or less): yields drop, $TMF bounces.
Oil: Brent levels I'm watching are $108 resistance and $105 support. Oil is driven by Hormuz headlines more than CPI.
Treasuries: 10Y levels I'm watching are 5.20% support and 5.35% resistance. A break above 5.35% means more downside for long bonds.
My lean: hot headline, in-line core. Yields spike, then fade.
Will core come in hot, or is this just a gas-price story?
$BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT
NFA · DYOR
Sept CPI drops in hours. My plan for Oil and Treasuries
The setup:
- Headline CPI expected ~3.7% YoY (Aug: 3.4%)
- Core expected ~2.4% YoY, 0.2–0.3% MoM
- Record Sept gas prices, Brent ~$106
- 10Y yield ~5.25%, near a 24-year high
My take: a high headline number is already priced in. Core is what matters.
Hot core (0.4%+): yields push toward 5.35%. $TBT up, $TMF down.
In-line core (0.2–0.3%): Fed waits for Dec. Yields stay 5.20–5.35%.
Soft core (0.1% or less): yields drop, $TMF bounces.
Oil: Brent levels I'm watching are $108 resistance and $105 support. Oil is driven by Hormuz headlines more than CPI.
Treasuries: 10Y levels I'm watching are 5.20% support and 5.35% resistance. A break above 5.35% means more downside for long bonds.
My lean: hot headline, in-line core. Yields spike, then fade.
Will core come in hot, or is this just a gas-price story?
$BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT
NFA · DYOR