🚹 CPI TOMORROW: WALL STREET IS ALMOST UNANIMOUS! 👀

Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could be a major catalyst for the bond market, Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and equities.

The consensus is remarkably tight:

📊 3.6%: Bank of America, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies, JPMorgan, TD, UBS, Kalshi, and others.

📊 3.7%: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays.

🎯 Median Forecast: 3.6% 👀

Here’s what I’m watching. When Wall Street is this tightly positioned around one number, the surprise matters more than the headline.

A hotter print could send the US 10-year Treasury yield higher, pressure mortgage rates, and reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. A cooler print could provide the bond market with some much-needed relief and potentially trigger a meaningful rally.

My focus isn’t just the headline CPI. It’s core inflation, the monthly trend, and how the 10-year Treasury reacts. With energy prices and inflation expectations already creating pressure, tomorrow’s report could help determine the next major move in rates.

Everyone is watching 3.6%. I’m watching what happens when the number hits the tape.

📈 US10YR: The bond market will tell the real story.

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