đąïž âHot CPI means oil goes upâ leaves out half the story.
$BZ
Higher energy costs can lift headline inflation. But an upside inflation surprise can also strengthen expectations for tighter policy, potentially weighing on demand and supporting the dollar.
Supply disruptions can push the other way.
My conditional oil framework:
âą Mark the high and low of the hour immediately before CPI on the exact contract being traded.
âą Wait for a completed 15-minute candle outside that range.
âą Require a retest that holds outside it.
âą Place the invalidation beyond the retest swing.
A return inside the range weakens the breakout thesis. No retest means no triggered setup.
Use the correct contractâs chartâBrent, WTI and related products can behave differently.
Supply concerns or demand concerns: which will price reflect?
Pre-release scenario. #CPIWatch #Oil #TradingPlan
$BZ
Higher energy costs can lift headline inflation. But an upside inflation surprise can also strengthen expectations for tighter policy, potentially weighing on demand and supporting the dollar.
Supply disruptions can push the other way.
My conditional oil framework:
âą Mark the high and low of the hour immediately before CPI on the exact contract being traded.
âą Wait for a completed 15-minute candle outside that range.
âą Require a retest that holds outside it.
âą Place the invalidation beyond the retest swing.
A return inside the range weakens the breakout thesis. No retest means no triggered setup.
Use the correct contractâs chartâBrent, WTI and related products can behave differently.
Supply concerns or demand concerns: which will price reflect?
Pre-release scenario. #CPIWatch #Oil #TradingPlan