đ§ Softer inflation could help bondsâbut the market still has to confirm it.
My bullish-bond scenario needs inflation below consensus and long-term yields staying lower after the release.
For the U.S.-listed $TMF
ETF, Iâd watch:
đž The first 15-minute range after the regular session opens.
đž A subsequent close above that range.
đž A successful retest while long-term yields remain lower.
A possible stop belongs below the retest low. If the next resistance leaves insufficient reward relative to that risk, skip the setup.
TMF seeks 3Ă its benchmarkâs daily return. Daily leverage amplifies losses as well as gains; it does not promise three times the return over longer holding periods.
If yields turn higher, the bullish thesis needs reassessment.
Would you wait for the retest or pass on the trade?
Pre-release analysis. #CPIWatch #TMF #Treasuries
My bullish-bond scenario needs inflation below consensus and long-term yields staying lower after the release.
For the U.S.-listed $TMF
ETF, Iâd watch:
đž The first 15-minute range after the regular session opens.
đž A subsequent close above that range.
đž A successful retest while long-term yields remain lower.
A possible stop belongs below the retest low. If the next resistance leaves insufficient reward relative to that risk, skip the setup.
TMF seeks 3Ă its benchmarkâs daily return. Daily leverage amplifies losses as well as gains; it does not promise three times the return over longer holding periods.
If yields turn higher, the bullish thesis needs reassessment.
Would you wait for the retest or pass on the trade?
Pre-release analysis. #CPIWatch #TMF #Treasuries