Crypto data as of 12 Oct, 20:12 UTC (Crypto.com). Gold and DXY are from Monday’s reports.

Crypto

  • $BTC $83,000 (-0.8%), 24h range 82,307–84,364

  • $ETH 2,524 (-0.5%)

  • $SOL $108.68 (-2.3%)

  • $XRP $1.369 (-2.7%)

BTC structure
BTC peaked near $87.4K on 21–23 Sep and was rejected at $86.7K on 6 Oct. It then dropped to $80.4K on 8 Oct and has bounced in an $82–84K range since.

  • Resistance: $84.4K, then $85.6K and $87.0–87.4K, where equal highs and liquidity sit

  • Support: $82.3K, then $80.4K, where sell-side liquidity sits

  • Bias: neutral to slightly bearish. BTC is making lower highs below $85.6K, and altcoins are falling faster than BTC, which is risk-off.

  • Trigger: a daily close above $85.6K reopens $87K. A break below $80.4K opens the mid-$70Ks.

Macro and forex

  • DXY: about 102.2, softer on Monday as Middle East tensions keep sentiment fragile

  • Fed: raised rates 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% in September, its first hike in three years. An October hike is priced out, but a December hike is about 85% priced in.

  • Gold: about $4,170–4,190, down about 3% in a month and far below the January record of $5,608. Resistance is $4,200–4,226, and support is about $4,150.

  • EUR/USD: about 1.12 and trending down

  • USD/JPY: about 158, near multi-year highs

  • GBP/USD: about 1.32, in a descending channel

  • Oil: Brent above $100, which supports the dollar. The US–Iran standoff adds headline risk.

(EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD levels are from last week, so approximate.)

Key event: US CPI, Wed 14 Oct, 8:30 AM ET (12:30 UTC)
August CPI was 3.4%, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast points to about 3.6%. The report lands two weeks before the 28 Oct FOMC.

  • Hot print: USD and yields rise. BTC likely retests $80.4K, and gold comes under pressure.

  • Soft print: USD weakens. Gold can move toward $4,225+, and BTC can push through $84.4K.

Tuesday is quiet, so expect thin, range-bound trading until CPI. PPI and retail sales follow on Thursday.

Overall: the strong dollar and rate-hike risk are capping both gold and crypto. A breakout on either side likely waits for CPI, so watch for a close beyond the ranges above.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

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