Six of eight crypto treasury names now trading below 1.0x mNAV — meaning you're buying them for less than the crypto + cash they actually hold.
Here's the structure:
mNAV = market cap ÷ NAV (crypto + cash + stated stakes). Below 1.0x = discount. Above = premium.
Below 1.0x:
$BTBT 0.55x
$SBET 0.80x
$FWDI 0.81x
$ORBS 0.85x
$BMNR 0.89x
$MSTR 0.91x
Above 1.0x:
$ASST 1.05x
$CYPH 2.20x
Why it matters: When treasury names trade under NAV, you're effectively getting exposure to $BTC or $ETH at a discount through equity. It's a structural arbitrage — assuming the company doesn't blow up the balance sheet.
What confirms it: If the discount narrows (mNAV rises back toward 1.0x), that's mean reversion working in your favor. If it widens further, you're catching a falling knife.
What invalidates it: If the company issues more shares, takes on crushing debt, or mismanages treasury — NAV can collapse faster than price.
$BMNR added 12,532 $ETH last week. $MSTR added 250 $BTC. Both are stacking. But note: debt and preferred stock aren't counted here. $MSTR and $ASST carry heavy debt — real mNAV would be higher if you baked that in.
The setup: If you believe $BTC and $ETH are going higher and you want levered exposure through equity, these discounts are your entry. If you think treasuries are a gimmick or management is reckless, stay clear.
This isn't a buy list. It's a valuation map. Trade the structure, not the story.
Here's the structure:
mNAV = market cap ÷ NAV (crypto + cash + stated stakes). Below 1.0x = discount. Above = premium.
Below 1.0x:
$BTBT 0.55x
$SBET 0.80x
$FWDI 0.81x
$ORBS 0.85x
$BMNR 0.89x
$MSTR 0.91x
Above 1.0x:
$ASST 1.05x
$CYPH 2.20x
Why it matters: When treasury names trade under NAV, you're effectively getting exposure to $BTC or $ETH at a discount through equity. It's a structural arbitrage — assuming the company doesn't blow up the balance sheet.
What confirms it: If the discount narrows (mNAV rises back toward 1.0x), that's mean reversion working in your favor. If it widens further, you're catching a falling knife.
What invalidates it: If the company issues more shares, takes on crushing debt, or mismanages treasury — NAV can collapse faster than price.
$BMNR added 12,532 $ETH last week. $MSTR added 250 $BTC. Both are stacking. But note: debt and preferred stock aren't counted here. $MSTR and $ASST carry heavy debt — real mNAV would be higher if you baked that in.
The setup: If you believe $BTC and $ETH are going higher and you want levered exposure through equity, these discounts are your entry. If you think treasuries are a gimmick or management is reckless, stay clear.
This isn't a buy list. It's a valuation map. Trade the structure, not the story.