Exactly one year ago today, bitcoin dropped from about $122,000 to $105,000 in a matter of minutes. The anniversary arrives with the market on shaky footing again, per CoinDesk and Decrypt.
đ The news
$BTC touched $80,427 on Thursday, its lowest level since early September, then bounced to roughly $82,800 on Friday. It is still about 4% lower on the week, and ether has lost around 9% over the same stretch.
The October 10, 2025 crash hit during thin Friday evening trading in the US, only days after bitcoin had printed a record above $126,000. Roughly $19 billion in positions were wiped out that day, the largest liquidation event on record.
đ Why it matters
âą Leverage had been quietly rebuilding while bitcoin ranged between $83,000 and $87,000
âą Per CoinDesk, about $1.09 billion was liquidated in 24 hours this week, and around 85% of it hit longs
âą Funding is still positive and the long/short ratio sits near 1.85, so the crowd is leaning long again
đ The numbers
âą US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on Wednesday, the worst day since late June, per Decrypt
âą Another $244 million left on Thursday
âą Bitcoin futures open interest is about $27.1 billion, slightly lower on the day, per CoinDesk
âïž Bull vs bear case
Bull: this week's flush was a fraction of last year's, and a rebound with no fresh leverage behind it is healthier than a squeeze.
Bear: ETF demand is fading, Treasury yields are high, and a Myriad market gives 67% odds that BTC trades at or below $80,000 before the month ends.
đ What to watch next
âą Weekend liquidity, because thin markets turned a dip into a crash last year
âą September CPI data on October 14, which Bitfinex analysts see as a possible range breaker
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đĄ My take: In my view the date itself means nothing, but the lesson still applies. Leverage in a thin market is what made last October so violent, and positioning is tilting long again this week.
đŹ What did last October's crash change about the way you trade?
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Leverage