No edge yet on ETH despite the mixed picture

$ETH /USDT: NO TRADE YET, waiting for one side to break
Bias: NEUTRAL · 2 bullish vs 2 bearish

The plan is conditional:
LONG on a 1h close above 2519.60 → targets 2539.74 / 2553.17 / 2573.31, stop 2492.75
SHORT on a 1h close below 2469.61 → targets 2449.47 / 2436.04 / 2415.90, stop 2496.46
In between (2.0% wide): no edge, no trade.

Technical read: NEUTRAL. 2 of 12 signals bullish, 2 bearish, 8 undecided.
Bullish side:
• Trend strength (ADX/DI, 15m): ADX 21.8 with buyers in control (DI+ 26.1 vs DI− 9.5) → buyers are driving the move
• BTC backdrop: BTC trend is bullish and correlation is 0.83 → BTC is rising and this coin tends to follow
Bearish side:
• 1h trend: price < EMA50 < EMA200, bearish stack → the short-term trend is down
• 4h RSI: 34.2, bearish momentum (below 45) → sellers have the momentum

My read:
There is no edge right now. The strongest bullish factor is the 15m ADX at 21.8 with buyers in control, meaning short-term buyers are leading the move. The strongest bearish factor is the 1h bearish stack with price below the EMA50 and EMA200, meaning the short-term trend is down.

If you were to take a position, what 1h close level would make you confident the short-term trend has reversed?

Chart with every level below.

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⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA — manage risk and DYOR.
Educational content, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, deposit, or withdraw any asset. No paid promotion or referral/affiliate links.