Michigan consumer sentiment just dropped to 46.3 — missed estimates and only 1.5 points above the May record low of 44.8. Three months straight down.

Current conditions hit 44.7, an all-time low. People aren't buying big-ticket stuff. Borrowing costs are still brutal, prices are still high.

Expectations barely budged up to 47.3, but that doesn't matter when day-to-day life is getting more expensive and people can feel it.

This is the kind of data that eventually forces a policy shift. Question is how long it takes.