$SPY and $QQQ both printed all-time highs into the weekly close — $SPY +1.2% to 7,811 — but the internals tell a messier story than the headline.
Michael Burry's calling this the denial stage, and the breadth backs him up: only ~46% of S&P names are above their 200-day MA, and the top 10 stocks carry roughly 40% of the index weight. That's not broad strength, that's concentration risk.
I'm not turning bearish, but I'm not chasing into this either. We shook off Thursday's AI scare, but conviction is thin.
Next week's the real test: $JPM and $GS earnings Tuesday, CPI Wednesday. If breadth doesn't expand and we get a hot CPI print, this rally gets fragile fast.
I'm watching for either a clean breakout with volume confirmation or a flush back into the 7,700–7,750 zone for a better entry. Right now, it's a hold-and-wait setup, not a chase.
Michael Burry's calling this the denial stage, and the breadth backs him up: only ~46% of S&P names are above their 200-day MA, and the top 10 stocks carry roughly 40% of the index weight. That's not broad strength, that's concentration risk.
I'm not turning bearish, but I'm not chasing into this either. We shook off Thursday's AI scare, but conviction is thin.
Next week's the real test: $JPM and $GS earnings Tuesday, CPI Wednesday. If breadth doesn't expand and we get a hot CPI print, this rally gets fragile fast.
I'm watching for either a clean breakout with volume confirmation or a flush back into the 7,700–7,750 zone for a better entry. Right now, it's a hold-and-wait setup, not a chase.