Five uncomfortable questions about the AI boom that nobody wants to answer:
1. Can we actually trust these tech company forecasts? Who's gonna pay for all this stuff, and where's that money really coming from? What happens if the numbers turn out to be total BS — or worse, just companies buying from each other in a circle?
2. Who's funding this whole AI buildout? It's not coming from tech companies' own pockets anymore — it's external money now. But where's *that* cash flowing from?
3. How high are rates actually going? How much AI funding is pulling money away from Treasuries, especially when foreign buyers are backing off? What does that do to debt costs and refinancing risk down the line?
4. Could oil spike rates even more? Stockpiles are getting thin. One incident in the Gulf and prices could go wild.
5. If the AI boom stalls, what happens to growth? Over 75% of global goods trade growth in H1 was AI-related. If that slows, how do we service all this debt?
These aren't doomsday predictions — just the kind of questions you ask when you've seen a few cycles. The vibe right now feels a bit like everyone's betting on the same hand, and nobody's asking what happens if the dealer flips a different card.
1. Can we actually trust these tech company forecasts? Who's gonna pay for all this stuff, and where's that money really coming from? What happens if the numbers turn out to be total BS — or worse, just companies buying from each other in a circle?
2. Who's funding this whole AI buildout? It's not coming from tech companies' own pockets anymore — it's external money now. But where's *that* cash flowing from?
3. How high are rates actually going? How much AI funding is pulling money away from Treasuries, especially when foreign buyers are backing off? What does that do to debt costs and refinancing risk down the line?
4. Could oil spike rates even more? Stockpiles are getting thin. One incident in the Gulf and prices could go wild.
5. If the AI boom stalls, what happens to growth? Over 75% of global goods trade growth in H1 was AI-related. If that slows, how do we service all this debt?
These aren't doomsday predictions — just the kind of questions you ask when you've seen a few cycles. The vibe right now feels a bit like everyone's betting on the same hand, and nobody's asking what happens if the dealer flips a different card.