Can ETH push lower when the daily trend is a range?

🔮 SHORT $ETH /USDT: expecting price to go DOWN
Bias: SHORT · Leaning

Entry: 2489.72 – 2492.78
TP1: 2460.58 (-1.2%)
TP2: 2440.13 (-2.1%)
TP3: 2409.46 (-3.3%)
SL: 2532.15 (+1.6%)
Plan: enter only inside the zone, take half at TP1, then move the stop to entry.
Note: moderate conviction only, keep size light.

Why SHORT? Leaning call, 6/12 signals agree, 1 against, 5 undecided.
‱ 1h trend: price < EMA50 < EMA200, bearish stack → the short-term trend is down
‱ Trend strength (ADX/DI, 15m): ADX 26.6 with sellers in control (DI+ 19.7 vs DI− 24.7) → sellers are driving the move
‱ 4h RSI: 33.3, bearish momentum (below 45) → sellers have the momentum
Risk: BTC backdrop: BTC trend is bullish and correlation is 0.78 → BTC is rising and this coin tends to follow

If it plays out:
If the idea works, the 1h price slides toward 2460, confirmed by the 1h trend showing sellers below both EMAs.

If it fails:
A break back above 2532.15 would prove it wrong, so I would exit the short at that invalidation level.

Where would you place your invalidation level on this short setup?

Levels mapped on the chart below.

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