🇺🇸 TRUMP’S TARIFFS ARE SHOWING UP IN AMERICANS’ SHOPPING BILLS.
But there’s a distinction worth understanding 👇
According to a new New York Fed study covering 67 consumer goods categories, by February 2026:
• Prices rose roughly 2% year over year.
• Without tariffs, the model estimates prices would have fallen around 0.9%.
• That puts the estimated tariff contribution at 2.9 percentage points for these goods—not overall US inflation.
Around two-thirds of the impact came from tariffs directly hitting imported goods.
The rest came from higher input costs and US businesses raising prices as imported alternatives became more expensive.
In plain English: even buying American doesn’t necessarily shield you from tariffs.
The study projects that the inflation impact peaked in early 2026 and will continue fading into 2027.
But a fading impact doesn’t mean your shopping bill returns to its old level. Prices can stay high while rising more slowly.
Here’s where I think we should be careful.
The 2% price increase is observed data. The hypothetical 0.9% decline without tariffs is a model estimate.
We can’t rewind the economy and run the same period without tariffs to see exactly what would happen.
Production costs, shipping, demand, competition and companies’ pricing decisions all matter. How well the model accounts for them affects the estimate.
That doesn’t make the research useless. It means the estimated tariff impact comes with uncertainty.
For markets, I’d watch whether easing tariff pressure actually translates into lower inflation readings—and gives the Fed more room to ease.
Do you think businesses will pass lower cost pressures on to consumers, or keep prices high to protect their margins?