$AVAX is up 33.14% over 30 days, and today's 4.0% slide has it sitting on the 24h low at $10.62.

that's 28.1 points ahead of BTC over the month. i read this as a pullback inside a bigger move, not a reversal. volume over the last 5 days is 0.70x the 20 days before it, so the sellers are loud but they aren't piling in.

daily RSI is 55, so nothing is stretched. the screener scores it 8 out of 14, which is a decent setup and not a great one. the tokenized U.S. equities and tokenized credit headlines on the coin's page give the dip a reason to get bought, but the tape is what i'm trading.

$AVAX trades at $10.62 right now, after printing $11.41 earlier today. if it holds the daily EMA20 at $10.5171, i think it walks back to the 20-day mean at $10.9161. if it loses $10.5171, i'm wrong on this and there's nothing to defend. anyone long takes the next leg down with no support under them.

holding $10.5171 or losing it?

follow me for more calls like this.