$1.84B in BTC options expires tomorrow, and the tape is set up for one more flush.
Greeks.live researcher Adam: 22,000 BTC options expire Oct 9 with a put-call ratio of 1.12, max pain at $84,000. Another 123,000 ETH options ($320M) expire the same day, max pain $2,650 (Odaily). That is 6% of all BTC options open interest and 9% of ETH's, coming off in one settlement.
Spot sits near $82,700, below max pain, with puts stacked on top. Gamma exposure is concentrated near $90K-$100K, which means dealers are not doing much heavy lifting below here. Implied vol keeps grinding lower. Nobody wants to pay for upside.
My read: this is a market bracing for a flush it has not priced yet. Low IV is not complacency here, it is everybody waiting for the trigger. When expiries this big meet a bearishly skewed options book, the path of least resistance into settlement is down, not sideways.
$BTC $ETH
Greeks.live researcher Adam: 22,000 BTC options expire Oct 9 with a put-call ratio of 1.12, max pain at $84,000. Another 123,000 ETH options ($320M) expire the same day, max pain $2,650 (Odaily). That is 6% of all BTC options open interest and 9% of ETH's, coming off in one settlement.
Spot sits near $82,700, below max pain, with puts stacked on top. Gamma exposure is concentrated near $90K-$100K, which means dealers are not doing much heavy lifting below here. Implied vol keeps grinding lower. Nobody wants to pay for upside.
My read: this is a market bracing for a flush it has not priced yet. Low IV is not complacency here, it is everybody waiting for the trigger. When expiries this big meet a bearishly skewed options book, the path of least resistance into settlement is down, not sideways.
$BTC $ETH