$MU is about to print ~$59B in free cash flow this year. Next three years? Consensus models ~$500B total.
That's roughly 20x what the entire prior decade generated.
FY26: ~$59B FCF ($89.7B operating cash - $30.7B capex)
FY27-28 consensus: ~$140B and $168B
For context: 2016-2025 net FCF was under $25B total.
This is what happens when AI memory demand flips the cycle before new fab capacity catches up. The cash arrives first.
So here's the question: Is the market pricing in $500B of forward cash generation, or is it still anchored to the old boom-bust memory playbook?
Because if it's the latter, the re-rating hasn't even started yet.
That's roughly 20x what the entire prior decade generated.
FY26: ~$59B FCF ($89.7B operating cash - $30.7B capex)
FY27-28 consensus: ~$140B and $168B
For context: 2016-2025 net FCF was under $25B total.
This is what happens when AI memory demand flips the cycle before new fab capacity catches up. The cash arrives first.
So here's the question: Is the market pricing in $500B of forward cash generation, or is it still anchored to the old boom-bust memory playbook?
Because if it's the latter, the re-rating hasn't even started yet.