July was the low. That is the claim analyst Ben Cowen made on Real Vision this week, and the monthly candles are quietly backing him up. June bottomed on June 30, then three straight higher monthly closes. September printed the strongest monthly close since December: down 27% from the October 2025 top, compared with 45% back in July.
Here is the part that should give everyone pause. Bitcoin cycle lows have only ever arrived in Q4. A July low would be the earliest in history, which means treating past cycles as a map here is risky.
I am still watching it closely, because the structure turned before the story did. Three months of higher closes, spot demand rebuilding, short-term holder supply working off. That is how bottoms usually form: in the tape first, in the conversation second.
A monthly close above September's is the confirmation I want. Until then it is a thesis with receipts, not a fact.
$BTC $ETH
Here is the part that should give everyone pause. Bitcoin cycle lows have only ever arrived in Q4. A July low would be the earliest in history, which means treating past cycles as a map here is risky.
I am still watching it closely, because the structure turned before the story did. Three months of higher closes, spot demand rebuilding, short-term holder supply working off. That is how bottoms usually form: in the tape first, in the conversation second.
A monthly close above September's is the confirmation I want. Until then it is a thesis with receipts, not a fact.
$BTC $ETH
