#fedoctoberholdodds82.3% On September 16, the Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point, to 3
.75%-4%. It was the first hike since 2023, under new Chair Kevin Warsh — the man Trump nominated specifically to replace Jerome Powell, confirmed by the Senate in May.
Warsh's reasoning: "This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." Core PCE inflation sat at 3.3% over the prior 12 months, still above the Fed's 2% target after nearly six years. He added, pointedly: "Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane."
Sixteen days later, on October 2, the September jobs report landed. The US added just 29,000 jobs against a forecast of roughly 85,000-90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. July and August gains were revised down by a combined 60,000. Wages grew just 0.1% month-over-month — below inflation.
Here's why it matters. Markets immediately repriced: the odds of another hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting fell from about 70% to 14%, while the odds of a hold jumped to 83%. Economist Justin Wolfers called the report "all around weak — but not tragic."
Trump had reportedly pushed for lower rates and threatened trade retaliation if Warsh didn't deliver them. Warsh hiked anyway.
This isn't just a data blip. This is the president's own pick for the Fed showing, in real time, that he won't simply do what he was appointed to do — right as the labor market cracks a month before voters decide the midterms.$AKE $FIGHT $MAGMA
.75%-4%. It was the first hike since 2023, under new Chair Kevin Warsh — the man Trump nominated specifically to replace Jerome Powell, confirmed by the Senate in May.
Warsh's reasoning: "This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." Core PCE inflation sat at 3.3% over the prior 12 months, still above the Fed's 2% target after nearly six years. He added, pointedly: "Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane."
Sixteen days later, on October 2, the September jobs report landed. The US added just 29,000 jobs against a forecast of roughly 85,000-90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. July and August gains were revised down by a combined 60,000. Wages grew just 0.1% month-over-month — below inflation.
Here's why it matters. Markets immediately repriced: the odds of another hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting fell from about 70% to 14%, while the odds of a hold jumped to 83%. Economist Justin Wolfers called the report "all around weak — but not tragic."
Trump had reportedly pushed for lower rates and threatened trade retaliation if Warsh didn't deliver them. Warsh hiked anyway.
This isn't just a data blip. This is the president's own pick for the Fed showing, in real time, that he won't simply do what he was appointed to do — right as the labor market cracks a month before voters decide the midterms.$AKE $FIGHT $MAGMA
