$BTC’s 47% rebound is not the same as a confirmed bottom.
#Binance Research found that when #bitcoin first bounced at least 40% while still 25%+ below its all-time high, the starting drawdown mattered more than the bounce itself. In five historical cases triggered only 30–38% below the high, four later broke the cycle low within 43 days. The current signal fired 35.6% below the high.
The interesting part isn’t that Bitcoin recovered sharply. It’s that lower volatility can make this bear market look milder than it is. On a volatility-adjusted basis, the 54.2% drawdown was similar in severity to prior bear markets.
That is a base rate, not a forecast. October follow-through matters more than the rebound headline.
#Binance Research found that when #bitcoin first bounced at least 40% while still 25%+ below its all-time high, the starting drawdown mattered more than the bounce itself. In five historical cases triggered only 30–38% below the high, four later broke the cycle low within 43 days. The current signal fired 35.6% below the high.
The interesting part isn’t that Bitcoin recovered sharply. It’s that lower volatility can make this bear market look milder than it is. On a volatility-adjusted basis, the 54.2% drawdown was similar in severity to prior bear markets.
That is a base rate, not a forecast. October follow-through matters more than the rebound headline.
