TradFi News | Markets See 82.3% Chance of Fed Hold in October
CME FedWatch data shows that traders currently see an 82.3% probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike stand at 17.7%.
The outlook shifts significantly toward year-end. By December, markets assign only a 17.3% probability to rates remaining unchanged, while a cumulative 25-basis-point increase carries the highest probability at 68.7%.
A larger 50-basis-point increase by December is currently priced at a 14% probability.
The figures suggest that markets do not expect an immediate rate hike in October, but still see further tightening as the most likely outcome by December.
For Bitcoin and other risk assets, the path of U.S. monetary policy remains an important macro factor. Incoming inflation, employment and economic data could continue to reshape these expectations before the Fed’s remaining meetings.
$BTC $XRP $DOGE
CME FedWatch data shows that traders currently see an 82.3% probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike stand at 17.7%.
The outlook shifts significantly toward year-end. By December, markets assign only a 17.3% probability to rates remaining unchanged, while a cumulative 25-basis-point increase carries the highest probability at 68.7%.
A larger 50-basis-point increase by December is currently priced at a 14% probability.
The figures suggest that markets do not expect an immediate rate hike in October, but still see further tightening as the most likely outcome by December.
For Bitcoin and other risk assets, the path of U.S. monetary policy remains an important macro factor. Incoming inflation, employment and economic data could continue to reshape these expectations before the Fed’s remaining meetings.
$BTC $XRP $DOGE
