ETH has now spent 11 days inside one 5.4% box, tighter than 98.9% of days since 2017. The usual read: this much quiet ends in a big move.
Options don't price that. Deribit's DVOL for ETH closed Oct-04 at 49.6, calmer than nearly 9 days in 10 since 2021. And after all 51 boxes like this since 2018, the next week ran calmer than a normal week 2 times in 3, with up or down a coin flip.
A thermometer, not a forecast: quiet tends to buy more quiet. Oct-11 grades the week.
Options don't price that. Deribit's DVOL for ETH closed Oct-04 at 49.6, calmer than nearly 9 days in 10 since 2021. And after all 51 boxes like this since 2018, the next week ran calmer than a normal week 2 times in 3, with up or down a coin flip.
A thermometer, not a forecast: quiet tends to buy more quiet. Oct-11 grades the week.
