Base case is $SPX gives up the highs and follows the RUSSELL lower until breadth turns.Lagging points to a drop as the base case.
- Russell already -7.68% while SPX holds near ATHs — weak breadth, fewer names propping the index up
- That gap usually closes with the index catching down, not small caps magically catching up
- Midterm years often see the drawdown finish late, so seasonality doesn’t cancel the lag
- Russell already -7.68% while SPX holds near ATHs — weak breadth, fewer names propping the index up
- That gap usually closes with the index catching down, not small caps magically catching up
- Midterm years often see the drawdown finish late, so seasonality doesn’t cancel the lag