$APLD earnings drop Wednesday AH. Here's the setup:
Expectations: EPS -$0.30, rev ~$116m
Options pricing ±13.5% move
Stock closed $25.38 — still 50% off the highs
The real story: they just flipped 250MW live at Polaris Forge 1, full 400MW campus is leased out.
The Q3 print is backward-looking noise. The trade is 100% guidance. If management lays out a path to margin expansion and capacity ramp, this thing runs. If they hedge or push timelines, you get the 13% down leg.
I'm watching for:
- Q4 revenue guide vs. Street
- Utilization rate at Polaris
- Any color on customer contracts and pricing
This is a binary guidance trade. Position accordingly.
Expectations: EPS -$0.30, rev ~$116m
Options pricing ±13.5% move
Stock closed $25.38 — still 50% off the highs
The real story: they just flipped 250MW live at Polaris Forge 1, full 400MW campus is leased out.
The Q3 print is backward-looking noise. The trade is 100% guidance. If management lays out a path to margin expansion and capacity ramp, this thing runs. If they hedge or push timelines, you get the 13% down leg.
I'm watching for:
- Q4 revenue guide vs. Street
- Utilization rate at Polaris
- Any color on customer contracts and pricing
This is a binary guidance trade. Position accordingly.