đš FED OCTOBER HIKE ODDS ARE COLLAPSING
The latest U.S. jobs report has dramatically changed the rate outlook.
đșđž September Nonfarm Payrolls: +29K
đ Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
đ Previous two months were revised lower by 60K combined.
With the labor market showing clear signs of cooling, market pricing now puts the probability of another Fed rate hike in October at only around 17% â meaning an October PAUSE is increasingly becoming the base case.
The macro chain is simple:
Weak jobs â Lower hike expectations â Less rate pressure â Potential relief for risk assets.
What could benefit if yields and tightening expectations cool?
đ» $QQQ â Tech stocks may get relief from lower rate pressure.
âż $BTC â Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to liquidity and macro conditions.
đ„ $XAU â Gold could benefit if real yields and the dollar weaken.
đŠ $TLTâ â Bonds may become more attractive if further tightening expectations fade.
â ïž But there is one important point:
A potential October pause does NOT automatically mean the Fed has pivoted to a dovish policy.
Inflation remains a major risk, and the market is still watching the possibility of a December hike.
So the real macro battle may be:
October â PAUSE increasingly priced in
December â Still uncertain
Watch yields, inflation data, and the next Fed signals closely.
What do you think?
đ Bullish for risk assets
đ» Or is the market underestimating inflation risk?
QQQ BTC XAU TLT
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Fed #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #Gold #BTC #Macro #DYOR
The latest U.S. jobs report has dramatically changed the rate outlook.
đșđž September Nonfarm Payrolls: +29K
đ Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
đ Previous two months were revised lower by 60K combined.
With the labor market showing clear signs of cooling, market pricing now puts the probability of another Fed rate hike in October at only around 17% â meaning an October PAUSE is increasingly becoming the base case.
The macro chain is simple:
Weak jobs â Lower hike expectations â Less rate pressure â Potential relief for risk assets.
What could benefit if yields and tightening expectations cool?
đ» $QQQ â Tech stocks may get relief from lower rate pressure.
âż $BTC â Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to liquidity and macro conditions.
đ„ $XAU â Gold could benefit if real yields and the dollar weaken.
đŠ $TLTâ â Bonds may become more attractive if further tightening expectations fade.
â ïž But there is one important point:
A potential October pause does NOT automatically mean the Fed has pivoted to a dovish policy.
Inflation remains a major risk, and the market is still watching the possibility of a December hike.
So the real macro battle may be:
October â PAUSE increasingly priced in
December â Still uncertain
Watch yields, inflation data, and the next Fed signals closely.
What do you think?
đ Bullish for risk assets
đ» Or is the market underestimating inflation risk?
QQQ BTC XAU TLT
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Fed #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #Gold #BTC #Macro #DYOR
