Most people are watching the candle.
Almost nobody is reading the unlock calendar, and it does not say what the crowd assumes.
First, know the two kinds of new supply, because they are not the same risk.
Unlocks are locked team and investor tokens released on a schedule. They can hit the market in large blocks.
Emissions are new tokens paid to stakers or miners. They drip in daily and are priced in more easily.
Now sort this week's bounce by that split.
Investor vesting already complete:
$AVAX
$NEAR
$INJ
Investor unlock done, community releases still ongoing:
$SUI
Genesis unlocks finished, new supply now from staking:
$SOL
No investor cliffs at all, supply comes from mining rewards:
$TAO
Remaining locked supply largely undisclosed:
$LINK
$ICP
Still carrying a large locked schedule:
$HYPE, with roughly 45% of supply still locked
The older names everyone calls overhung have already cleared their investor cliffs.
The leader with the heaviest calendar still ahead is the one the market trusts most.
That does not make it a short. It means demand has to keep outrunning a schedule that has not finished yet.
A green week does not cancel tokens that are still vesting.
The overhang is not where the crowd thinks it is.
Almost nobody is reading the unlock calendar, and it does not say what the crowd assumes.
First, know the two kinds of new supply, because they are not the same risk.
Unlocks are locked team and investor tokens released on a schedule. They can hit the market in large blocks.
Emissions are new tokens paid to stakers or miners. They drip in daily and are priced in more easily.
Now sort this week's bounce by that split.
Investor vesting already complete:
$AVAX
$NEAR
$INJ
Investor unlock done, community releases still ongoing:
$SUI
Genesis unlocks finished, new supply now from staking:
$SOL
No investor cliffs at all, supply comes from mining rewards:
$TAO
Remaining locked supply largely undisclosed:
$LINK
$ICP
Still carrying a large locked schedule:
$HYPE, with roughly 45% of supply still locked
The older names everyone calls overhung have already cleared their investor cliffs.
The leader with the heaviest calendar still ahead is the one the market trusts most.
That does not make it a short. It means demand has to keep outrunning a schedule that has not finished yet.
A green week does not cancel tokens that are still vesting.
The overhang is not where the crowd thinks it is.
