🚨 THE FED HIKE TRADE JUST COLLAPSED — OCTOBER ODDS ARE DOWN TO 17%.
After the latest U.S. jobs report showed just 29K payroll growth and unemployment rising to 4.2%, traders sharply cut expectations for another Fed hike this month. One market snapshot put the probability near 17%.
That is a huge shift from just days ago, when oil-driven inflation fears had pushed October hike odds above 70%.
The macro chain just flipped:
Weak jobs → lower hike odds → lower yield pressure → better conditions for risk assets.
That’s why this matters for:
$QQQ — tech gets relief if rates stop climbing.
$BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets benefit when Fed pressure eases.
$XAU — gold gets a cleaner setup if yields and the dollar soften.
$TLT — bonds benefit directly if markets price less tightening.
But don’t confuse “pause” with “pivot.”
Fed officials are still saying inflation is too high, and Reuters notes a December hike remains possible depending on incoming CPI and other data.
So the trade now is:
October pause narrative ON.
December uncertainty still alive.
$QQQ $BTC $XAU $TLT
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% #ZcashETFPostsFirstWeeklyOutflow$93.6M #GreekPoliceBustCryptoScamRingArrest17 #BitcoinRejectedAt$87K #NvidiaHitsRecordHighUp2.4%
After the latest U.S. jobs report showed just 29K payroll growth and unemployment rising to 4.2%, traders sharply cut expectations for another Fed hike this month. One market snapshot put the probability near 17%.
That is a huge shift from just days ago, when oil-driven inflation fears had pushed October hike odds above 70%.
The macro chain just flipped:
Weak jobs → lower hike odds → lower yield pressure → better conditions for risk assets.
That’s why this matters for:
$QQQ — tech gets relief if rates stop climbing.
$BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets benefit when Fed pressure eases.
$XAU — gold gets a cleaner setup if yields and the dollar soften.
$TLT — bonds benefit directly if markets price less tightening.
But don’t confuse “pause” with “pivot.”
Fed officials are still saying inflation is too high, and Reuters notes a December hike remains possible depending on incoming CPI and other data.
So the trade now is:
October pause narrative ON.
December uncertainty still alive.
$QQQ $BTC $XAU $TLT
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% #ZcashETFPostsFirstWeeklyOutflow$93.6M #GreekPoliceBustCryptoScamRingArrest17 #BitcoinRejectedAt$87K #NvidiaHitsRecordHighUp2.4%
