The macro picture just changed. đ
After a weak U.S. jobs report, markets now price just 17% odds of an October Fed rate hike, while the probability of a hold has risen to 83%.
The reason?
đșđž September payrolls added only 29K jobs
đ Unemployment rose to 4.2%
đ JulyâAugust payrolls were revised down by 60K
đ” Markets now expect less Fed tightening through 2026.
For crypto, lower tightening expectations can improve the liquidity backdrop and risk appetite.
But thereâs a key warning:
BTC already showed the reaction â it pushed toward $87K, failed to hold, and pulled back toward $84.6K.
So Iâm watching liquidity + inflation + BTC price reaction, not just the 17% headline.
If upcoming inflation data stays soft, the macro setup could become more supportive for $BTC $ETH $SOL .
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17% #FederalReserve #Liquidity #BTC #Crypto
