FOMC meeting Oct 28 — market's basically pricing in zero chance of a hike
83.9% odds rates stay put
Fed's probably done here. They'll keep talking tough about "data dependency" but let's be real, nobody's expecting movement. Inflation's cooling, job market's whatever, and they don't want to nuke things right before election season wraps up.
Rate pause = risk-on stays alive for now. But don't get too comfy — if inflation ticks back up or employment data goes weird, that 16% chance suddenly matters a lot more than you think.
83.9% odds rates stay put
Fed's probably done here. They'll keep talking tough about "data dependency" but let's be real, nobody's expecting movement. Inflation's cooling, job market's whatever, and they don't want to nuke things right before election season wraps up.
Rate pause = risk-on stays alive for now. But don't get too comfy — if inflation ticks back up or employment data goes weird, that 16% chance suddenly matters a lot more than you think.
