đ the inflation contradiction â good today, warning tomorrow
The macro data in September told two stories simultaneously. Core CPI dropped to 2.4% YoY â the lowest since February 2026, genuinely approaching the Fed's 2% target. Real progress. But the monthly core CPI came in at 0.3% â above the entire analyst forecast range. And PPI surged to 5.4% YoY â driven by energy, with Brent back above $111 on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The pipeline is hot. What shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI in 2-3 months. The good inflation data of September may not survive October. December hike probability stayed above 70% all month. đ§
#inflation #cpi #corecpi #dyor #fed2percent
The macro data in September told two stories simultaneously. Core CPI dropped to 2.4% YoY â the lowest since February 2026, genuinely approaching the Fed's 2% target. Real progress. But the monthly core CPI came in at 0.3% â above the entire analyst forecast range. And PPI surged to 5.4% YoY â driven by energy, with Brent back above $111 on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The pipeline is hot. What shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI in 2-3 months. The good inflation data of September may not survive October. December hike probability stayed above 70% all month. đ§
#inflation #cpi #corecpi #dyor #fed2percent